Market Commentary - February 2nd, 2023

CryptoAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $23,800 USD and Ethereum at $1,676 USD. Cryptocurrencies were having a relatively quiet week up until the Federal Reserve meeting yesterday. The price of BTC was having a bit of trouble at around the $24,000 level after finding sellers twice there. However, the price is also not falling and is merely consolidating just under the $24,000 level after the Fed raised rates by only 25bps (more on that in the Macro section).ETH also had a relatively quiet week coiling between a 3% range but was able to break out to new 2023 highs after yesterday's Fed meeting. While both leading cryptos have not yet managed to break significantly higher at the time of writing, it has to be noted that buyers kept their prices supported as every small dip has been bought back in earnest. This shows that there is strong underlying demand for these cryptos even after having risen by more than 40% over January.It also seems that institutional participation in BTC is picking up. Market experts would not deny that an institutional-led upswing in price has traditionally had more longevity as compared with retail investor-led rallies. The good news regarding the recent BTC price rally is that data is suggesting that the rally could be institutional-led. This can be seen in both the CME futures and Grayscale discounts, which are showing that institutional participation has increased ever since the November 2022 FTX-led selloff. The CME futures, after declining for about 11 months since December 2021, spiked much higher in December 2022 and began an uptrend in January 2023. The Grayscale discount, which has traditionally been used to gauge institutional demand for cryptocurrencies, has also staged a rebound after falling deeper into the negative in December 2022.MacroThe Federal Reserve did what was expected, raising rates by 25bps yesterday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned a few set of future signals the market should watch for during his post FOMC commentary. For instance, rates would continue to rise but the Federal Reserve was not going to challenge the markets' dovish expectations. Since the June 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance, markets have been inclined to emphasize the Fed's actions rather than words.The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE ) index, came in-line with expectations, confirming that the rate of inflation has eased again to its lowest point since November 2021. The PCE index slowed to 4.4% on a year-over-year basis from 5% in the previous quarter.Q4 2022 US GDP figures came in better than expected, rising 2.9% versus expectation of 2.8%. However, the growth rate was slightly slower than the 3.2% pace set in 3Q 2022, which could mean that the economy was slowing down. While the better GDP number put off fears of recession for some investors, the fact that the economy slowed down gave others a reason to be cautious.The Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 50 bps. Markets' focus will likely be on the nature of the bank's divisions. Both the BOE and ECB mentioned that if there were to be evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.Equities, Fixed Income, FX and CommoditiesEquitiesExpectations of lower rate hikes buoyed stocks, with all the major US stock averages putting in another positive week and posted a month of gains in January. Tech stocks were the outperformers, with the Nasdaq rising 4.32% to carve out its fourth week of gains after better-than-expected results from Tesla and Meta, while the S&P and Dow added 2.47% and 1.81% respectively. Tonight is another massive day for earnings as Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet are all expected to report their earnings.Fixed Income, FX & CommoditiesUSD consolidating its post FOMC loses. The greenback was weaker after the Fed hinted that it has turned a corner in the fight against inflation. Dealers increasing its confidence that the end of the central bank's rate-hike campaign was near. The mixed showing of the USD led to some profit-taking on precious metals, which saw Gold and Silver lose about an inch, even though their rising trends appear to remain intact.As for oil, prices rose early last week on expectations that global demand will strengthen as top oil importer China reopens its economy and as US crude inventories rose less than expected. However after yesterday's FOMC meeting ,it pulled back along with precious metals.News we've been readingTether CTO Paolo Ardoino said the company never borrowed from Celsius. In an independent examiner's report of the bankrupt lender's activities, it was stated that ‘the Tether exposure eventually grew to over [USD 2B],' which was considered an ‘existential risk.' Ardoino added that the report contained a typo, or that it is a mis-characterization. - link - @PaoloArdoinoFormer People's Bank of China (PBOC) advisor Huang Yiping said the government should reconsider its ban on crypto trading in the long run. During a speech in December, Yiping described the ban on the activity as ‘practical' at the moment, but that a permanent ban could result in missing opportunities associated with novel technology. - link - @SCMPBlockFi has been approved to auction off assets including its mining business. During a court hearing, the bankrupt lender's legal counsel said it plans to expedite the bidding process to capitalize on current market conditions. Bids are due by February 20, the lawyers also mentioned. - link - @BloombergGemini is reportedly being investigated by the New York Department of Financial Services, according Axios. Sources said the agency is determining whether Gemini's claims of being FDIC-insured violated the law by misleading investors of its Gemini Earn product. Earn customers are owed USD ~765M from the product's bankrupt lending partner Genesis. - link - @AxiosUS prosecutors are looking to prevent Sam Bankman-Fried from accessing encrypted messaging platforms. In a court letter, the prosecutors argued that Bankman-Fried has reached out to former colleagues and potential witnesses via Signal in order to obfuscate the communication from law enforcement. - link - @FTThe fine printDisclaimerThis confidential presentation has been prepared by Coinsquare Ltd., together with its respective affiliates (the “Company”) solely for information and/or educational purposes. It shall not be construed as investment advice. Information contained herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to certain qualifications and assumptions and should not be exclusively relied upon for the purpose of making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation therewith. 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