Market Commentary - October 27th, 2022

Crypto MarketAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $20,700 USD and Ethereum at $1,575 USD. According to Glassnode, there has been a marked shift in balance change behaviour by most Bitcoin wallet cohorts. All ranges of Bitcoin holders from less than 1 BTC to Whales (up to 10k BTC) have altered their behaviour from one of net balance decline and distribution (selling their Bitcoin), and towards one of net accumulation and balance increase (buying Bitcoin). This suggests that market participants consistently have a tendency towards buying and accumulation at range lows.Glassnode's data on crypto trading platforms also indicates that the 30-day netflow of BTC and ETH has been withdrawals, and simultaneously, an excess of $3B/month in stablecoins have flowed into trading platforms, increasing relative buying power. In summary, this means USD reserves are increasing, whilst coin available to buy is declining in Crypto Trading Platforms. The number of active BTC and Ethereum addresses remain below record highs seen in June, but the metric is more resilient in 2022 compared to 2018. Finally, Google searches for ‘crypto' & ‘bitcoin' have reached their lowest levels since early 2021. Despite subdued attention from retail investors, institution interest in crypto remains high. For example, Investment firm AllianceBernstein said institutional investors continue to build out digital asset strategies despite the crypto market sell-off this year.MacroThe Federal Reserve is still laser focused on inflation, which remains too high. But interest rates famously act with a considerable time lag-one shouldn't expect the latest series of rapid hikes to have a real impact on price gains for a few months. Nevertheless, another 75 point rate hike is in the cards for next week. The good news is that other central banks are starting to ease up a bit. Australia has already slowed rate hikes. Canada delivered a smaller-than-expected increase (50 bps instead of 75 bps). The European Central Bank is just getting warmed up, but will surely slow down again soon.In the United States, sales of new single-family homes fell 10.9% in September from the month prior, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000. Although better than analysts expected, the decline-coupled with mortgage rates that topped 7% last week-has made buying a home more expensive. The Mortgage Bankers Association's volume of home purchase loan applications last week was 42% lower than the same week in 2021, and fell about 12% over September, a sign of the continued pullback from higher mortgage rates.This morning the ECB increased rates by 75 bps as expected. Despite signs of Central banks across the globe slowing their pace, the ECB expects to raise interest rates future over the next sewerage meetings, deciding meeting by meeting. They did not mention anything about quantitative tightening.US Q3 Annualized GDP numbers came out at 2.6% versus the expected 2.4% which officially moves the USA out of a technical recession. Personal consumption came out at 1.4% versus 1.0% expected. The Core Personal Consumption index was 4.5% as expected. While market participants will be happy about the GDP numbers, this may also give the option for the federal reserve to be more aggressive with rate hikes in the future given the stronger economy.Equities, Fixed Income, FX and CommoditiesEquitiesWith earnings coming along over the last week, the tech sector has been hit harder than most. Meta shares (META) are down nearly 20% in premarket this morning after the Facebook parent's earnings and revenue fell short of hopes, with similar results for Alphabet (GOOGL) and Snap's (SNAP). Wall Street downgrades are trickling in. After the close today, in addition to Apple and Amazon.com, Intel (INTC) and a few others will report their earnings.Fixed Income, FX and CommoditiesUSD remained on the defensive for a 3rd straight session as markets continued to bet the Fed would slow the pace of its rate hike. US 10-year yield hovered just above 4.0% area. Greenback was off its worst levels by mid-day as yield drifted higher. The EUR/USD extended losses to test parity against the US dollar following the ECB's meeting by meeting forward guidance and no mention of QT in ECB's statement. USD/JPY continued to move away from recent 32-year highs. Focus on upcoming BOJ rate decision where markets expect the central bank to maintain it's its super-easy monetary policy.News we've been readingFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller criticised plans for the US central bank to potentially issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Waller described a potential US CBDC as ‘just a checking account at the Fed' and added that he is ‘not a big fan of it, but I'm open to having someone convince me that this is something that's really valuable.' UK lawmakers voted to include amendments to existing crypto regulations in a finance bill. The new bill, if passed into law, would expand on the country's existing regulatory framework for the asset class, such as granting the Financial Conduct Authority and HM Treasury increased oversight.Bank of America strategists said investors may be viewing BTC as a safe haven asset as its correlation with equities drops from recent highs. In a research note, the strategists added that the token's 40-day correlation with gold has risen from zero to 0.50 since mid-August amid uncertainty around the macro environment and market bottom. Fidelity's crypto arm is looking to add 100 people to its team by the end of Q1 2023, according to a source cited by Bloomberg. The group, which was formed in 2018, plans to bring its headcount to 500 people across Boston, New York, London and Dublin. Bank of Canada raises interest rate again - but the pace of hikes may be slowing. Central bank has increased its rate 6 times this year to try to rein in inflation but decided to raise rates by 50 bps instead of 75 bps. DisclaimerThis confidential presentation has been prepared by Coinsquare Ltd. (the "Company") solely for information and/or educational purposes. It shall not be construed as investment advice. Information contained herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to certain qualifications and assumptions and should not be exclusively relied upon for the purpose of making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation therewith. Neither the Company nor any of its representatives shall have any liability whatsoever, under contract, tort, trust or otherwise, to you or any person resulting from the use of the information in this presentation by you or any of your representatives or for omissions from the information in this presentation. The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and, in furnishing this document, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide recipients with access to any additional information or to update or correct the document. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any securities administrator in any jurisdiction. This presentation or the information contained herein is not to be given to any person other than the person or group that was provided with the presentation directly by the Company or their advisors and is not to be reproduced in any manner whatsoever. Any further distribution or reproduction of this presentation in whole or in part, or the disclosure of any of its contents by the recipient, is unauthorized. Interested investors are not advised to rely solely on this document in forming investment decisions and are strongly advised to conduct further due diligence by requesting additional information from the company before making any such investment decisions. Unless otherwise noted, all figures expressed herein are in Canadian dollars. Coinsquare Wealth advisors cannot provide investment advice.Forward-Looking InformationCertain of the information contained in this confidential presentation may contain "forward-looking information". Forward-looking information and statements may include, among others, statements regarding the future plans, costs, objectives or performance of the Company, or the assumptions underlying any of the foregoing. In this presentation, words such as "may", "would", "could", "will", "likely", "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intend", "plan", "estimate" and similar words and the negative form thereof are used to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether, or the times at or by which, such future performance will be achieved. The actual results of the Company could vary from the forward-looking information contained herein, including as a result of such risks as a collapse in the market for cryptocurrencies, adverse regulatory developments and competition from other cryptocurrency custodians. Forward-looking statements and information are based on information available at the time and/or management's good-faith belief with respect to future events and are subject to known or unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other unpredictable factors, many of which are beyond the company's control. The forward-looking information contained herein was developed based on assumptions related to, among other things, the continued growth of the cryptocurrency market, the company's ability to obtain a license from the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance to operate a trust company or to receive a license from the applicable securities commissions as a clearing agent, grow its market share and the viability of the Company's intended future product offerings. The Company does not intend, nor does it undertake any obligation, to update or revise any forward-looking information or statements contained in this presentation to reflect subsequent information, events or circumstances or otherwise, except if required by applicable laws. The Company is a new company with no operating history; and it may not actually achieve its plans, projections, or expectations. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's expectations include, consumer sentiment towards the Company's products and blockchain technology generally, litigation, global economic climate, equipment failures, increase in operating costs, decrease in the price of cryptocurrency, security threats, government regulations, loss of key employees and consultants, additional funding requirements, changes in laws, technology failures, competition, and failure of counter-parties to perform their contractual obligations. Neither the Company nor any of our representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, sufficiency or completeness of the information in this presentation. Certain information contained herein is based on, or derived from, information provided by independent third-party sources. The Company believes that such information is accurate and that the sources from which it has been obtained are reliable. The Company cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, however, and has not independently verified the assumptions on which such information is based. The Company does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information.